South Africa Supply chain industry body SAPICS says that the effects of the war in Iran are already rippling through global supply chains and that businesses and consumers are unlikely to be spared. 

The ongoing conflict in Iran is already sending shockwaves through global supply chains, and South African businesses and consumers are unlikely to escape its effects. According to the supply chain body, disruptions in energy markets, maritime shipping routes, and logistics insurance are driving up the cost and complexity of moving goods to and across Africa.

“Supply chains are highly interconnected global systems. When geopolitical tensions affect major energy corridors or shipping routes, the consequences travel quickly through logistics networks and ultimately reach businesses and consumers everywhere,” says SAPICS president Thato Moloi.

Diesel Prices and Rising Transport Costs

One of the immediate impacts of the conflict is volatility in global oil and diesel markets. Diesel powers trucks, freight rail networks, port equipment, and agricultural machinery. When diesel prices rise, transport costs increase almost immediately.

“For African economies, where transport already accounts for a significant portion of the price of goods, higher fuel costs move through the entire supply chain and eventually show up on store shelves,” says Moloi. “This affects everything from food to industrial inputs and contributes to broader inflationary pressures.”

The rising fuel costs also mean that interest rate cuts expected in South Africa could be delayed, as inflationary pressures mount due to higher oil prices triggered by the Iran conflict.

Maritime Route Disruptions

Global shipping routes are under strain. Major shipping companies are rerouting vessels to avoid danger zones, suspending trade in some areas, and adding surcharges for “war risks” and “emergency conflicts.”

“For supply chain managers, longer routes translate into longer lead times, higher fuel consumption, and increased freight costs. Global shipping schedules, already under pressure, could become even less predictable,” Moloi explains.

Rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope instead of the faster Trans-Suez route also adds both time and cost to shipments heading to Africa.

Rising Insurance Costs

Insurance premiums for vessels operating in high-risk areas have surged. Marine hull insurance rates in the Gulf could reportedly rise by up to 50% due to the conflict. Insurers have also been issuing cancellation notices within 48 to 72 hours to reassess risk exposure and adjust premiums.

“These changes can significantly increase operating costs for shipping companies. And, like fuel and freight costs, these increases ultimately move through supply chains and into the price of goods,” Moloi says.

Building Resilient Supply Chains

The war in Iran underscores a broader reality for professionals and industry players: disruption is no longer the exception, it is the norm. Over the past five years, supply chains have faced pandemic aftershocks, geopolitical conflicts, climate events, port congestion, skills shortages, and cost volatility.

“Companies are shifting from a narrow focus on cost efficiency toward building more resilient supply chains,” Moloi notes. “This includes diversifying suppliers, maintaining buffer stock for critical goods, investing in supply chain visibility technologies, and closely monitoring geopolitical risks that could disrupt transport corridors.”

“Events like this show why supply chain management has become such a strategic function in modern organisations. The decisions made by supply chain managers determine how effectively businesses navigate uncertainty and how well they protect both customers and the broader economy,” he concludes.

As disruptions continue to ripple across the globe, South African businesses that invest in skilled supply chain professionals and resilient networks will be best positioned to absorb shocks and maintain steady operations.