Retail Leaders Expect Rollback of Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs

Many retail leaders are expecting a wave of tariff rollbacks once the 90-day pause ends in July. A new survey from AlixPartners, highlighted by CNBC, shows growing optimism that much of the Trump-era trade pressure could ease soon.

Retail and consumer industry executives are growing increasingly optimistic about the future of U.S. trade policy. That sentiment appears to be driven by a mix of favourable court rulings and renewed negotiations between the United States and China, both of which have injected a sense of momentum into discussions around tariff reform.

According to a June 1 survey conducted by consulting firm AlixPartners, most executives from brands, retailers, and other consumer-focused companies now expect the president to roll back significant portions of the steep duties currently in place. The anticipated rollbacks would primarily affect tariffs on imports from the European Union, Vietnam, India, and Mexico, countries that have been central to the tariff tensions of recent years.

This shift in expectations comes as the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs nears its expiration in July, this will now put pressure on the administration to clarify its long-term trade approach. While nothing is certain, the survey results suggest that many in the retail industry are betting on a more moderate path forward, one that could ease cost pressures across global supply chains and improve predictability for sourcing and pricing.

Vietnam remains a critical manufacturing and export hub for many U.S. companies, especially in apparel and footwear, two sectors that have been hit hard by tariff volatility in recent years.

Since April, Donald Trump’s team has been actively negotiating with several countries in an effort to secure new trade agreements. These talks are widely expected to pave the way for reduced tariff rates, offering potential relief for U.S. importers and global supply chains.

Adding to that momentum, the U.S. Court of International Trade issued a key ruling earlier this month, stating that former President Trump lacked the legal authority to impose the tariffs announced in April. While the ruling is currently on hold pending an appeal from the administration, it marks a significant challenge to the foundation of those tariffs, and raises the likelihood that they could ultimately be rolled back.

Together, these developments are fuelling growing optimism within the retail and consumer goods industries that a shift toward more stable and lower trade barriers may be on the horizon and in a sign of easing trade tensions, the U.S. and China have reached a mutual understanding aimed at dialling back tariffs, part of a broader effort to stabilize economic ties. As a result, the effective tariff rate on Chinese goods entering the U.S. is expected to fall to around 55%, signalling a potential shift away from the more aggressive trade stance of recent years.